- Why We Can’t See Grabby Aliens
In two posts, I recently explained how a simple 3 parameter model of grabby aliens can explain our apparent early arrival in the universe, via a selection effect: we might give rise to a grabby civ, but that had to happen before … Continue readin…
- 15 days ago, 8 Jan 21, 4:10pm -
- Try-Menu-Combo Filter Steps
- 20 days ago, 3 Jan 21, 4:00pm -
- Long Views Are Competitive
(I thought I’d said this somewhere before, but this is closest I’ve found.) In all human decisions, we face two main issues: A) What do we want? B) What must we accommodate? When we are rich and our universe is … Continue reading →
- 29 days ago, 25 Dec 20, 4:30pm -
- The Long Term Future of History
- 31 days ago, 23 Dec 20, 3:00pm -
- How Far To Grabby Aliens? Part 2.
In my last post, I recommended these assumptions: It is worth knowing how far to grabby alien civs (GCs), even if that doesn’t tell about other alien types. Try-try parts of the great filter alone make it unlikely for any … Continue reading →
- 32 days ago, 22 Dec 20, 3:15am -
- How Far To Grabby Aliens? Part 1.
Many have tried to estimate how far away are aliens. For example, some apply the Drake equation, which is the product of 7 parameters, some of which can vary over quite wide ranges. Resulting estimates tend to be quite uncertain … Continue reading…
- 33 days ago, 21 Dec 20, 8:30pm -
- Re Privacy Wars, Sue For Peace
Imagine: your relative is a celebrity, currently the focus of a media scandal. You and other relatives are talking together, strategizing. Reporters are asking for interviews, and digging into your world, probably via both legal and illegal means. Wh…
- 38 days ago, 16 Dec 20, 6:35pm -
- Reliable Private-Enough Physical Identity
“Your papers, please” (or “Papers, please”) is an expression or trope associated with police state functionaries, allegedly popularized in Hollywood movies featuring Nazi Party officials demanding identification from citizens during random st…
- 40 days ago, 14 Dec 20, 11:10pm -
- Social Proof, But of What?
People tend to (say they) believe what they expect that others around them will soon (say they) believe. Why? Two obvious theories: A) What others say they believe embodies info about reality, B) Key audiences respect us more when we … Continue rea…
- 41 days ago, 13 Dec 20, 2:30am -
- If Aliens Are Near
Most of us have core beliefs about which we feel pretty confident, but to which we get emotionally attached. One useful exercise to help overcome such attachment is to think explicitly about how you would change other beliefs if you … Continue read…
- 46 days ago, 8 Dec 20, 7:30pm -